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2020 Census results: Middle Tennessee drives population growth as state becomes more racially diverse

Yue Stella Yu
Nashville Tennessean

Tennessee is more racially diverse than a decade ago, and Middle Tennessee is driving the state's growth, according to newly released 2020 Census results on Thursday.

As the Volunteer State attracts newcomers, more than half a million people moved to Tennessee over the past decade, bringing the total population to 6.9 million, data shows.

Tennessee grew at a slower pace in the past 10 years than in previous decades — a trend mirroring the pattern nationwide, according to Marc Perry, senior demographer at the Census Bureau's Population Division. 

America saw its population grow by 7.4% during the 2010s — a lower rate compared to the 9.7% during the 2000s and 13.2% in the 1990s, Perry said.

"Only the 1930s had slower growth," he said.

U.S. CENSUS:US sees unprecedented multiracial growth, decline in the white population for first time in history

The Nashville skyline as pictured on Friday, June 4, 2021 in Nashville, Tenn.

Nationally, metropolitan areas grew as smaller rural communities shrank, according to the Census Bureau. Tennessee saw similar trends.  

Much of Tennessee's growth concentrated in counties surrounding Metro Nashville, an increasingly popular destination for urban development and business investment, the data shows. 

Meanwhile, smaller counties in West and Northeast Tennessee — mainly those bordering Missouri, Arkansas and Kentucky — lost population over the past decade. 

The 2020 census, conducted amid the deadly global pandemic, gives Americans a renewed look at the nation's changing demographics for the first time in a decade. 

Taken every 10 years, the census measures population growth in each state and territory, and records key demographics including race and gender. The results have a significant impact on how states redraw political district boundaries, how much federal funding they receive and a host of other issues.

Volunteer State now more diverse

Racial diversity also became more pronounced both in Tennessee and across the nation.

The country experienced unprecedented multiracial growth over the past decade, Census Bureau officials said Thursday. 

The white, non-Hispanic population, without another race, decreased by 8.6% since 2010, said Nicholas Jones, director of race, ethnicity, research and outreach for the Census Bureau's Population Division. Jones cautioned that some of the changes can be attributed to improvements to the survey. The white, non-Hispanic population is still the largest racial group in the U.S.

The view of Lower Broadway as seen from the Grand Penthouse of the Four Seasons Private Residences Nashville as seen on Thursday, June 24, 2021, in Nashville, Tenn.

While white residents remain the dominant group in Tennessee, making up almost 5 million of the state's total population, they now account for 72.2% of Tennessee's population, down from 77.6% in 2010, data shows. 

Experts, however, have expressed concerns that racial minorities may have been undercounted during this round of the census, partly due to political pressure from former President Donald Trump's administration. 

Meanwhile, the likelihood of two randomly-picked Tennesseans coming from different racial groups — measured by the Census Bureau's Race and Ethnicity Diversity Index — is now 46.6%, up from the 39.8% in 2010.

In Davidson County, white non-Hispanic people make up for 56% of the county's population, down from the 61.4% in 2010, data shows. Population of two or more races more than doubled over the past decade, accounting for 7.5% of the county's total population compared to the 2.5% in 2010.

In Tennessee, almost 413,000 people identified as multiracial in the 2020 Census, up from the 110,000 a decade ago, data shows.   

Nationally, multiracial population grew exponentially, Census Bureau officials said Thursday.

“These changes reveal that the U.S. population is much more multiracial, and more racially and ethnically diverse, than what we measured in the past,” Jones said.

Population growth centered around Middle Tennessee 

A majority of newcomers to Tennessee settled down in counties surrounding Metro Nashville during the 2010s, census data shows.

Davidson County now has 715,884 people, an increase of 14.2% from the 626,662 people from 2010. The uptick accounts for 15% of the statewide growth over the past decade.

"That equates to one new resident per hour for the last ten years," said Nashville Mayor John Cooper in a Thursday tweet.

But neighboring counties grew at a faster pace.   

Williamson County, for example, saw a 35% jump in population over the past decade. A increase of more than 64,000 people brought the total population to more than 247,000, data shows. 

Wilson County grew by 29.6%, and Sumner County by 22.2%, according to the data.

Smaller counties, such as Clay and Pickett counties to the north and Lauderdale and Lake counties to the west, lost population. Pickett County — the smallest county in the state — now has 5,001 people, down from the 5,077 in 2010.

Shelby County remained the state's largest but it's growth was largely stagnant. Its population grew 0.2% to 929,744 in 2020, up from 927,644 a decade ago.

Data used for congressional, state and local redistricting

The newly-released data will guide the once-in-a-decade redrawing of Tennessee's state Senate, House and U.S. congressional districts — a process controlled by the state legislature, where Republicans hold a supermajority.

There is no statutory deadline set for lawmakers to approve a redistricting plan, but districts should be redrawn before the candidate filing deadline of April 7, 2022. 

Local governments, tasked with redrawing districts for local elections, face a much tighter deadline of Jan. 1, 2022, according to state law.

Race fans look out over the city following the IndyCar qualifier at the Big Machine Music City Grand Prix in Nashville, Tenn., on Saturday, August 7, 2021.

Although Tennessee has seen a growth of more than 564,000 people over the past decade, the state's number of congressional districts will remain at nine, according to Census data. Each congressional district must now include roughly 768,500 people.

Tennessee's Republican leadership has not dismissed the idea of gaining one more Republican seat in Congress by slicing up Nashville's Democratic-heavy congressional district, currently held by U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Nashville. Opponents have warned the plan could dilute Nashville's Black votes, which lean heavily Democratic.

If applied, the tactic may expand the Republican margin in Tennessee's congressional delegation from 7-2 to 8-1, leaving the Memphis-area district the lone blue island.

A Republican-drawn map could also further shrink the Democratic influence in the legislature. Currently, Democrats hold 6 of 33 Senate seats and 26 of 99 House seats. 

House Speaker Cameron Sexton, R-Crossville, told reporters Tuesday he is working on finalizing members of the House Redistricting Committee. The office of Lt. Gov. Randy McNally, R-Oak Ridge, has said McNally is "committed to an open and transparent redistricting process" but did not specify how.

Democratic leadership in the Tennessee General Assembly called for a "community-driven" mapping process in a Tuesday letter addressed to speakers of both legislative chambers. The letter urged leaders to be open to the public, allow for community engagement and consider public submissions for the first draft of the map. 

"The community districting process should be among the most public endeavors that our state government undertakes. The General Assembly has access to the technology to make this process transparent and even interactive,” the letter says. “Far from slowing down the legislative work of drawing new district lines, we believe such efforts would not only build trust but also lead to a stronger final product."

Reach Yue Stella Yu at yyu@tennessean.com. Follow her on Twitter at @bystellayu_tnsn.

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